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Author Topic: With the 7th pick  (Read 3151 times)
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« on: November 28, 2005, 05:51:57 PM »

The Nets select:
Lincoln Lord, PG, Okie State
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« Reply #1 on: November 28, 2005, 05:53:47 PM »

Quote from: NetsGM
The Nets select:
Lincoln Lord, PG, Okie State

Surprise, some may think ...
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« Reply #2 on: November 28, 2005, 06:10:09 PM »

There is one pg who has obvious better ratings, yes.

But I had Lincoln rated as my #2 pg entering the draft, and pretty much a tossup between him and Vito.  Two very different pg's, really, with Vito much more of a scorer and Lincoln more of a pure pg.

But let's compare the 3 pg's I could have taken with the pick (with Vito being one, even though he was gone and not really an option).
Vito Ramsey vs. Lincoln Lord vs. Darius Arbogast
Height:
Ramsey: 5'9"
Lord: 6'5"
Darius: 6'0"

This was a concern because I'm going to let the kid develop for probably a good 3 years while Boykins continues to play.  My priority heading into the draft was to take a successor to Boykins, but I still want Boykins to play as I want to maintain a championship level as my heir develops.  But I also want the player to be able to play a little bit while Earl is still here.  Lincoln, because of his height, will play at both backup pg and backup sg.  Neither of the other 2 could do that.

Assists: Lincoln doesn't have mindblowing assists numbers.  Because he had low stamina and a low pf rating.  neither of those two stats carry over to the professionals, so he shouldn't be limited in how many minutes he can play in the pro's like he was in college.  If you look at all 3 players on a per 35 minute basis, their college stats look like (Lord's rankings among the 3 are in parenthesis):
Ramsey: 15.8 ppg, 6.6 apg, 3.11 topg, 1.22 pps
Lord: 12.0 ppg (3), 7.6 apg (1), 1.8 topg (1), 1.36 pps (1)
Arbogast: 12.8 ppg, 6.6 apg, 2.52 topg, 1.27 pps

Furthermore, if you compare Lord's stats in his junior year vs. Ramsey's in his junior year and Arbogast's in his junior year, he simply blows them away in assists/turnovers/assists per turnover

Then, there's age.  As I said, I'm not looking for him to play right away, but to develop.  But I also don't want to draft a 24 year old, stash him, and not play him until he's 28.  So being 21 was a definite plus.

So really, Lord, outside of scoring, was a superior pg to all of them in college.  So it comes down to Ramsey and Arbogast having A potential's to Lord's B.  This is where I'm going to either look like a genius or a dope.  In prior years you have nothing to go on on potential and pretty much have to trust it.  Now, we'll see if I've got this FBCB thing figured out.

in FBCB:
Ramsey is underachieving in 3 cateories, overachieving in 1, +2 overall
Lord is underachieving in 2 categories, overachieving in 0, +2 overall
Arbogast is underachieving in 0 categories, overachieving in 2, -2 overall.

By that estimation, Lord's potential is at least accurate, and might be scouted low.  Ramsey's is probably true, and Arbogast's is probably overrated.

So, by my estimation Lord is as good of a pg (worse offensively than Ramsey, better distributor) as either of them with equal potential to Ramsey and better than Arbogast.

So my rankings coming into the draft were:
1) Ramsey
2) Lord
3) Arbogast

We'll see how the potential works out and if I'm way off base on that.
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« Reply #3 on: November 28, 2005, 06:36:54 PM »

Well I will take Arbogast.
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« Reply #4 on: November 28, 2005, 06:38:10 PM »

then you can trade me max Wink
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« Reply #5 on: November 28, 2005, 06:55:47 PM »

Max is available ?
 Laughing
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« Reply #6 on: November 28, 2005, 07:12:55 PM »

Is Max most talked about 12th pick ever, or 10th and later?
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« Reply #7 on: November 28, 2005, 07:15:32 PM »

Look at max's ratings and production, he could be incredible.  Of your 3 pg's last year he might turn out to be the best.
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« Reply #8 on: November 28, 2005, 07:18:58 PM »

Quote from: NetsGM
Look at max's ratings and production, he could be incredible.  Of your 3 pg's last year he might turn out to be the best.

Thank god i'm not the GM who gave him away, I couldn#t sleep anymore ...
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« Reply #9 on: November 28, 2005, 07:19:19 PM »

I was aware of that even when i drafted him, i've seen his scouted potential, it was incredible, but he just didn't fit into my plans. He was just too young for my team and i still wasn't ready to rebuild completly. Otherwise, i would have kept him.
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« Reply #10 on: November 28, 2005, 07:31:37 PM »

I just don't know what to do. If anyone wants to send me an offer for the 11th aka Arbogast, feel free.

But I have max, and Perry is more than capable of backing up the PG postion...yet I just can't draft anyone but Darius.
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« Reply #11 on: November 28, 2005, 07:56:41 PM »

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I just don't know what to do. If anyone wants to send me an offer for the 11th aka Arbogast, feel free.

But I have max, and Perry is more than capable of backing up the PG postion...yet I just can't draft anyone but Darius.

I have to think about Perry then ...
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« Reply #12 on: November 28, 2005, 08:08:07 PM »

The only big left is Granville Aranda, and he's -1 in potential collegiately.

Darius is by far the best player available.
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« Reply #13 on: November 28, 2005, 08:18:15 PM »

I like that SG too....but yeah, gotta go BPA. Got my starter with the 8th.
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« Reply #14 on: November 28, 2005, 08:23:23 PM »

Quote from: RaptorsGM
I just don't know what to do. If anyone wants to send me an offer for the 11th aka Arbogast, feel free.


Nobody will overpay for the pick when there are other options at PG...

Arbogast - C, B+, A-, C, D+, A
Seymore - C, A-, B+, C, C-, B
Holston -   C, B+, A- C-, D+, D
Hill (SG) - C+, B+, B+, C, C, B

(there just isn't that much of a dropoff from Arbogast to the other players.)

Especially if their potential is incorrect.  Personally, Seymore looks like he could be as good, if not better than Arbogast, but who knows?
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