Point Differential

[JazzGM-old2]

Other than winning percentage point differential is probably the most powerful predictor of playoff success we have.  Point differential is the number of points you score minus the number of points you allow.  Here is the breakdown for our league so far.


team   PPG   oPPG   Point Differential
Pacers   99.8   90.2   9.6
Nets   99.1   91.2   7.9
Hornets   99   91.3   7.7
Hawks   100.8   95.2   5.6
Raptors   99.8   94.5   5.3
Suns   104.4   99.8   4.6
Cavs   98.2   94.5   3.7
Magic   99.8   96.3   3.5
Warriors   99   95.8   3.2
Kings   99.8   97   2.8
Rockets   101.3   98.8   2.5
Lakers   98.5   96.4   2.1
Clippers   105.9   104   1.9
Celtics   98.6   96.9   1.7
76ers   102.7   101.7   1
Pistons   95.9   96.3   -0.4
Grizzlies   96.4   97.6   -1.2
Maverick   99.4   101.2   -1.8
Wizards   94.6   96.4   -1.8
Spurs   95.9   98   -2.1
Trailblaze   99.4   101.8   -2.4
Nuggets   94.7   97.3   -2.6
Timberwo   94.5   97.1   -2.6
Superson   96.8   100.2   -3.4
Bulls   100.4   106.6   -6.2
Bucks   95.6   101.8   -6.2
Knicks   91.3   98.2   -6.9
Heat   89.1   100.6   -11.5
Jazz   81.3   95.6   -14.3

From this we see that the Pacers are the runaway favorites to win the title.  The Nets and Hornets are also legit contenders.  After that I would say we have also rans and lotto teams.  However, there is always time for trades.  Based on this sort, I would recommend that the Nets and Hornets make a strong push for a title this year, maybe bringing in one more or one better piece to try and push them up to even with the Pacers.

JazzGM

[PacersGM]

thanks for the good breakdown. but so far the hornets are still the team to beat. i think my team lost now 2 years in a row against them in the POs.

[SpursGM-old]

Nice analysis Jazz.  I have a spreadsheet that also takes into account what I call possession differential: it is the sum of rebound diff + steal diff - turnover diff.  This metric in combination with a modified point differential (I use points per fga to calc point differential) tends to rank teams fairly well.  Problem is that the last couple seasons (6 months) have been very busy and I haven't been able to keep up with it.