true potential of 2nd rounders

[CelticsGM]

Wouldn't it be nice to have a better chance finding out the true pot of a 2nd round pick?
I mean, honestly, who would spend half a years income to check the true pot of a guy making 332k ?

So here's the idea: make it cheaper.
Charge anywhere from $50 to $100 and maybe someone would take a look.


Also desirable:
checking rookies pot BEFORE the draft: $200
checking YOUR 1st rd draftee's pot: $100 (you will have him on your payroll for 4 years anyway)

[HeatGM]

i like this idea...

[CelticsGM]

Furthermore, potential imho is overrated. It simply doesn't tell you a lot in reality, especially for players not among the top prospects.

For example, if C Bramble had 100 tru pot (like many of the high schooler have) i would still cut him, because he might need YEARS of improvement to even get decent (same with the high schoolers). So it's more the negative potential that's interesting. Why keep guys on your roster that are not good in the first place and have 30 pot?

So even if you know the true pot, what now. You can hope that does carry over to the next TC (where i've seen 100 pot guys stay exactly the same too), but other than that there's little you can do with pot but wait.

[NetsGM]

I very much doubt the price of scouting a 2nd rounder will change.  You don't scout a draft pick.  You scout a draftee.  Whether that will be used for your late first rounder, 2nd rounder, or a pick you're looking to acquire.  I can't be the judge of that when you ask me to find the true potential of a draftee.  What if you have a top 2nd round pick, scout someones true potential, then after already paying decide you want to trade to the end of the first round to get him?

There has to be some level of chance here.  Think of it this way.  When NBA teams go to scout draftees, is it cheaper for them to draft 2nd rounders?  No.  The fact of the matter is they spend less resources preparing for the 50th pick in the draft than they do for the 5th.  The idea with buying potential is that it's more likely to be done for high draft picks that have more to lose.

Take a look at your league.  I would have like to have known Brandon Roy's true potential.  But at #20, he wasn't worth the price.  That's a decision I had to make.  I don't agree with the school of thought that "since it's less likely he'll be good, I should get his potential easier".

[KingsGM-old]

Only the CelticsGM can make a thread about "true potential of the 2nd rn player", no one else on the face of the earth.

[CelticsGM]

I very much doubt the price of scouting a 2nd rounder will change.  You don't scout a draft pick.  You scout a draftee.  Whether that will be used for your late first rounder, 2nd rounder, or a pick you're looking to acquire.  I can't be the judge of that when you ask me to find the true potential of a draftee.  What if you have a top 2nd round pick, scout someones true potential, then after already paying decide you want to trade to the end of the first round to get him?

There has to be some level of chance here.  Think of it this way.  When NBA teams go to scout draftees, is it cheaper for them to draft 2nd rounders?  No.  The fact of the matter is they spend less resources preparing for the 50th pick in the draft than they do for the 5th.  The idea with buying potential is that it's more likely to be done for high draft picks that have more to lose.

Take a look at your league.  I would have like to have known Brandon Roy's true potential.  But at #20, he wasn't worth the price.  That's a decision I had to make.  I don't agree with the school of thought that "since it's less likely he'll be good, I should get his potential easier".

bods, that's not what i'm talking about.

Of course, BEFORE the draft is done potential of all prospects has to be regarded equal. Everbody could be drafted anywhere.

But AFTER the draft you have 3 groups of players: 1st round draftees, 2nd round draftees and undrafted rooks.
My question was this: is it reasonable to charge more than half a seasons maximum income to find out if MY OWN 2nd rounder I picked at #55 has any potential. Would anyone invest $200 in that ?

I know I'd pay $50 for each 2nd rounder to see, but if I have the choice to spend $400 to find out if Bramble and Smith can become backups anytime or get a $5mio trade exception for the same price, no way .... you get the idea?

 

[NetsGM]

Nope.  In my mind once a player is drafted, he's the same as every other player on your team.  I think the price for buying potential, both for players in the draft and on your team, should be steep.  How long should we hold on to this "change the price for 2nd round draft picks" idea?  What if they explode in TC, should you still get the discount to see if they can improve even more?  Should we distinguish based on the level of suckitude (new word) of the player?  Yeah, Gamble might blow.  But what about a deep draft where the 1st pick of the 2nd round is really good.  Should he be able to find out the true potential of him for practically nothing while the end of the 1st round has to pay $200?  Where should the distinction be made?  How arbitrary should you get.

What it sounds to me is like "I shouldn't have to pay so much because my guy currently sucks".  Well, yeah.  But you can't put an arbitrary distinction on where that level of suckiness comes in.  I'm not changing it.

[CelticsGM]

fine, it was just an idea. No problem keeping the status quo.

But ...
of course there is a difference between a DRAFTABLE player and a DRAFTED player. The latter one is assigned to a team (let aside the poor FA class), the first one is open to anyone to grab.

I would even go so far to say that you should get a discount to find out the true pot of players on your OWN team. In reality you SEE guys perform everyday, not just game stats. You get to see the flaws and strengths in practice, shootarounds. Not for players on other teams, these you have to scout mainly in play action.

But on the other hand ...
it's probably a wise idea not to make true pot accessible too easy. We sure don't want too many situations when some GM finds out about the true pot of a (solid) top5 pick and immediately trades him when finding out the true pot (as happened elsewhere recently ...)