What's a mid 1st draft pick worth ?

[CelticsGM]

{I postet this first as answer to my Ginobili trade thread, but I think this surprising outcome belongs here in the general discussion forum}

Well, since that draft pick discussion - whats a mid 1st rounder worth - never stops, I decided to take a look at the past drafts:

2009: (Way too early to tell)
Taken between 11-20: Palacio, Holton, Robertson, Davies, Abdul-Wahad, Keefe, Ahye, Hyatt, P. Maggette, Lucas
Starter: none (possibly Palacio, Paul Maggette)
Top prospects taken later: ?

2008:
Taken between 11-20: Ward, Micah Hunter, Fletcher, Schwartz, Zollner, Springs, Profit, Fauber, Elliott, Monroe
Starter: Fletcher (possibly Ward & Elliott)
Top prospects taken later: A. Rouseau

2007
Taken between 11-20: Hinkle, Austin, Curran, Evan Lo, Stockton, Beardslee, Bellamy, Sapp, Templeton, Geiger
Starter: None
Top prospects taken later: J. Duncan, M. Bird

2006
Taken between 11-20: Hobson, Crotty, Cunningham, H. Strickland, Havlicek, Meyers, Collier, Luisetti, T. Kundla, Conrad
Starter: Havlicek, Kundla
Top prospects taken later: Van Exel, Del Negro, Chamberlain, Lovelette


So what does that mean: The 3 drafts from 2006 to 2008 (forget about the 2009 now) produced AFTER pick #10 exactly 5 starters: Havlicek, Kundla, Chamberlain, Del Negro and Fletcher. Only Hav can be considered a star as of now with Chamberlain and Kundla close behind

So the chances to find a player who can become a starter WITHIN 2-3 YEARS (let alone a star) after pick 10 are very slim. One or two each draft. A grand total of 5 among 90 picks (counting pick #11 in rd.1 to #10 in rd.2)

This is NOT EXACTLY overwhelming, this is downright FRIGHTNING !!!

[RaptorsGM]

You traded the first pick in the draft, not a mid first


And while you might no get a starter, havin depth is VEY important.

A pick between 11-15 is VERY worthwhile.

[NetsGM]

Nice job going to sleep  

And I agree, at that point in the draft it's primarily bench players.  And the 2006 draft was hand-generated for distribution with the league, so I think the 5 number is even a little high.

[KingsGM-old]

So, it's official. This is the most controversial trade in history of SSBA, right?

[CelticsGM]

You traded the first pick in the draft, not a mid first


And while you might no get a starter, havin depth is VEY important.

A pick between 11-15 is VERY worthwhile.

First thats not the point here. I got ripped for trading two - as I assume - mid 1st rounders for one "who knows" pick that can be anywhere between 5 and 25.

And 2nd, that pick CAN be worthwhile. But it seldom IS. Where were these 5 starters (which is probably one on a REAL contender) picked?
#13, #15, #19, #26, #30.

Finally, how I tried to seperate in my analysis was answering this question: Is he good enough to start on a good team. So what you almost always get after pick 10 is backups.

And I'd deal backups for a starter any day ...

[PacersGM]

at the moment it is very hard to talk about a mid first after you lost both sims 1-6. also important is you are telling everyone what kind of players are not starting on a good team.
how many of this guys would either start or come of the bench for your team?
Yea i like gino but he isn´t the guy who can make a lotto team a PO team.
At the moment the sixers get a top 3 pick for gino....

[RaptorsGM]

You traded the first pick in the draft, not a mid first


And while you might no get a starter, havin depth is VEY important.

A pick between 11-15 is VERY worthwhile.

First thats not the point here. I got ripped for trading two - as I assume - mid 1st rounders for one "who knows" pick that can be anywhere between 5 and 25.

And 2nd, that pick CAN be worthwhile. But it seldom IS. Where were these 5 starters (which is probably one on a REAL contender) picked?
#13, #15, #19, #26, #30.

Finally, how I tried to seperate in my analysis was answering this question: Is he good enough to start on a good team. So what you almost always get after pick 10 is backups.

And I'd deal backups for a starter any day ...

See, that's because what you "assume" and what others "assume is entirely different things. You assume your pick will be a mid first. I assume it will be top 10. I do not think Manu is worthy of a op 10 pick alone after glancing at the Preview.

And I think you traded a starter in Dre, a starter in your first, and a possible starter in your 2012 first for a stater in Manu.

From your perspective it's 3 backups for a starter. From mine it's possibly 3 starters for 1 starter.

[CelticsGM]

Sorry to be harsh but get off my back, guys.

I don't know if the topic title is so hard to understand ? There's a reason I took this out from the Ginobili trade thread to start a discussion bout non-top10 picks - which are even worse than what I thought they'd be.

I didn't want to furter discuss my Gino deal here since after all that can't be judged before seasons end.
If I end up near the playoff picture and the pick falls to 12 like last year it's a good deal. If the sixers do start rebuilding by trading TD for picks or young talents and their pick next year is higher lottery it's an ever better deal. But that's pure speculation now - as much as declaring me top candidate for a top3 pick after sim2 !!!