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Title: Point Differential Post by: JazzGM-old2 on August 12, 2008, 02:35:25 PM Other than winning percentage point differential is probably the most powerful predictor of playoff success we have. Point differential is the number of points you score minus the number of points you allow. Here is the breakdown for our league so far.
team PPG oPPG Point Differential Pacers 99.8 90.2 9.6 Nets 99.1 91.2 7.9 Hornets 99 91.3 7.7 Hawks 100.8 95.2 5.6 Raptors 99.8 94.5 5.3 Suns 104.4 99.8 4.6 Cavs 98.2 94.5 3.7 Magic 99.8 96.3 3.5 Warriors 99 95.8 3.2 Kings 99.8 97 2.8 Rockets 101.3 98.8 2.5 Lakers 98.5 96.4 2.1 Clippers 105.9 104 1.9 Celtics 98.6 96.9 1.7 76ers 102.7 101.7 1 Pistons 95.9 96.3 -0.4 Grizzlies 96.4 97.6 -1.2 Maverick 99.4 101.2 -1.8 Wizards 94.6 96.4 -1.8 Spurs 95.9 98 -2.1 Trailblaze 99.4 101.8 -2.4 Nuggets 94.7 97.3 -2.6 Timberwo 94.5 97.1 -2.6 Superson 96.8 100.2 -3.4 Bulls 100.4 106.6 -6.2 Bucks 95.6 101.8 -6.2 Knicks 91.3 98.2 -6.9 Heat 89.1 100.6 -11.5 Jazz 81.3 95.6 -14.3 From this we see that the Pacers are the runaway favorites to win the title. The Nets and Hornets are also legit contenders. After that I would say we have also rans and lotto teams. However, there is always time for trades. Based on this sort, I would recommend that the Nets and Hornets make a strong push for a title this year, maybe bringing in one more or one better piece to try and push them up to even with the Pacers. JazzGM Title: Re: Point Differential Post by: PacersGM on August 12, 2008, 03:08:03 PM thanks for the good breakdown. but so far the hornets are still the team to beat. i think my team lost now 2 years in a row against them in the POs.
Title: Re: Point Differential Post by: SpursGM-old on August 12, 2008, 03:30:28 PM Nice analysis Jazz. I have a spreadsheet that also takes into account what I call possession differential: it is the sum of rebound diff + steal diff - turnover diff. This metric in combination with a modified point differential (I use points per fga to calc point differential) tends to rank teams fairly well. Problem is that the last couple seasons (6 months) have been very busy and I haven't been able to keep up with it.
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